2006BASED PUPIL PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY 1 THE MODELLING PROCESS USES

Primary school pupil number projections

2006-based pupil projections

Methodology

The modelling process uses information from:

a) Pupil Census September 2006 and previous.
b) General Register Office for Scotland - mid-year population estimates up to 2006.
c) General Register Office for Scotland - 2006 based population projections

Firstly, the percentage of pupils of each age, in each sector, compared to the total number of children in the population was calculated.
Then, for a given cohort moving through the school, the participation rate for a given year was projected using the knowledge of the previous year's participation rate for that cohort, together with the average change in participation rates at that age. For example, if 98.2% of 6 year-olds were in mainstream primaries in 2005, and on average over the past four years the participation rate of 6 year-olds had increased 0.3 percentage points by the time they are 7, then the projected participation rate for 7 year-olds in 2006 would be 98.5%.
A similar methodology was used for 16 - 18 year olds, but some changes were made to avoid distortion due to leavers. The average change in participation rates were based on fewer years, so that more recent years were given greater weight. In addition, where the participation rate for 17 and 18 year-olds resulted in a lower participation rate than the average over 2003 to 2005, the average was used instead.
The participation rates for 19 year olds was calculated using the 4 year average rates for 2002-2005.
Participation rates for cohorts not yet in the system were calculated using four year average rates for 3, 4 and 5 year-olds, which are then projected forward using the same methodology as above.
No adjustments have been made for the effect of mainstreaming or of changes in the proportion in the independent sector.
The local authority projections have then been scaled so as to sum to the Scotland-level projection. Rounded figures are published.
Maps on the following pages show the percentage decrease of primary and secondary pupils by local authority between 2006 and 2010.

For further details please contact Mal Cooke

Tel: 0131 244 1689

e-mail: [email protected]

Primary school pupil number projections⁽¹⁾

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Aberdeen City	12,300	12,300	12,200	12,100	12,100
Aberdeenshire	19,500	19,300	19,100	19,100	19,100
Angus	9,000	8,900	8,900	8,900	8,900
Argyll & Bute	6,500	6,100	5,900	5,800	5,500
Clackmannanshire	4,000	3,900	3,900	3,900	4,000

Dumfries & Galloway	11,000	10,600	10,500	10,200	10,200
Dundee City	9,900	9,900	9,800	9,800	9,900
East Ayrshire	9,400	9,300	9,300	9,200	9,200
East Dunbartonshire	8,900	8,600	8,300	7,900	7,700
East Lothian	7,600	7,300	7,200	7,100	7,200

East Renfrewshire	8,400	8,300	8,200	8,000	7,800
Edinburgh, City of	25,100	24,600	24,400	24,200	24,400
Eilean Siar	2,000	2,000	1,900	1,900	1,900
Falkirk	11,600	11,600	11,600	11,700	11,800
Fife	27,200	26,800	26,700	26,500	26,500

Glasgow City	38,600	38,300	38,000	37,900	38,200
Highland	17,300	17,300	17,200	17,200	17,100
Inverclyde	6,000	5,900	5,700	5,600	5,600
Midlothian	6,500	6,400	6,300	6,200	6,100
Moray	7,200	7,000	6,800	6,600	6,500

North Ayrshire	10,800	10,600	10,500	10,300	10,300
North Lanarkshire	27,300	27,100	26,900	26,800	26,700
Orkney Islands	1,600	1,500	1,500	1,400	1,400
Perth & Kinross	10,200	10,100	10,000	9,900	9,800
Renfrewshire	13,400	13,200	13,100	13,000	13,000

Scottish Borders	8,500	8,400	8,400	8,400	8,400
Shetland Islands	1,900	1,800	1,800	1,800	1,800
South Ayrshire	8,100	8,000	7,800	7,700	7,600
South Lanarkshire	24,200	23,900	23,600	23,500	23,500
Stirling	6,900	6,800	6,700	6,600	6,600

West Dunbartonshire	7,100	6,900	6,700	6,600	6,600
West Lothian	14,700	14,400	14,300	14,200	14,200

Total	382,300	377,200	373,200	370,200	369,200

(1) Projections rounded to the nearest 100, so may not add to total.

2006BASED PUPIL PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY 1 THE MODELLING PROCESS USES

Secondary school pupil number projections⁽¹⁾

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Aberdeen City	10,400	10,100	9,900	9,500	9,200
Aberdeenshire	15,700	15,700	15,500	15,200	15,000
Angus	7,100	7,100	7,000	6,900	6,900
Argyll & Bute	5,700	5,600	5,500	5,300	5,200
Clackmannanshire	3,000	3,000	2,900	2,900	2,800

Dumfries & Galloway	9,600	9,500	9,300	9,100	9,000
Dundee City	8,100	8,000	7,900	7,800	7,600
East Ayrshire	7,900	7,700	7,500	7,300	7,100
East Dunbartonshire	8,000	7,800	7,500	7,200	7,000
East Lothian	5,900	5,900	5,900	5,800	5,700

East Renfrewshire	7,700	7,700	7,700	7,700	7,700
Edinburgh, City of	19,700	19,300	18,800	18,300	17,800
Eilean Siar	1,900	1,800	1,800	1,800	1,800
Falkirk	9,200	9,000	8,800	8,700	8,600
Fife	22,100	21,900	21,500	21,100	20,800

Glasgow City	28,200	27,500	26,900	26,300	25,700
Highland	14,900	15,000	15,000	14,800	14,700
Inverclyde	5,300	5,200	5,000	4,900	4,700
Midlothian	5,500	5,400	5,200	5,100	5,100
Moray	5,900	5,900	5,800	5,700	5,600

North Ayrshire	9,000	8,800	8,600	8,500	8,200
North Lanarkshire	21,800	21,500	21,300	21,200	21,100
Orkney Islands	1,500	1,400	1,400	1,400	1,400
Perth & Kinross	7,900	7,900	8,000	7,900	7,800
Renfrewshire	11,400	11,100	10,900	10,700	10,500

Scottish Borders	7,000	6,900	6,800	6,700	6,600
Shetland Islands	1,700	1,600	1,600	1,500	1,500
South Ayrshire	7,200	7,000	6,800	6,700	6,600
South Lanarkshire	20,000	19,700	19,500	19,100	18,700
Stirling	6,000	6,000	6,000	5,900	5,900

West Dunbartonshire	6,200	6,000	5,900	5,700	5,500
West Lothian	10,900	11,000	10,900	11,000	10,900

Total	312,400	308,300	303,000	297,900	292,600

(1) Projections rounded to the nearest 100, so may not add to total.

2006BASED PUPIL PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY 1 THE MODELLING PROCESS USES

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