POPULATION DYNAMICS EXAM PRINT NAME 1 POINT EACH 1

PADIMA POLICIES AGAINST DEPOPULATION IN MOUNTAIN
DATOSREADTABLE(CDOCUMENTS AND SETTINGSLETICIAMIS DOCUMENTOSESPEMULTIVARIADOSEMESTRE20131DATOSTRESPOPULATIONACTION2012TXT HEADER TRUESEP)
POPULATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2003 FOREWORD

1) FOR A POPULATION THAT HAS A STANDARD DEVIATION
11 MAKING POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR DISTRICTS (AND WINNIPEG CASNCS)
146 TURCHIN KOROTAYEV POPULATION DYNAMICS AND INTERNAL WARFARE

POPULATION DYNAMICS EXAM

POPULATION DYNAMICS EXAM PRINT NAME__________________________

1 point each

1. What is the current population of the world?

6.95 BILLION; ACCEPT 6.5 TO 7.5 BILLION

2. By 2050 what is the world population size that the United Nations expects?

9.3 BILLION; ACCEPT 9 TO 9.5 BILLION

3. How many people are added to the world population each year?

ACCEPT ANYWHERE IN 75-85 MILLION

4. When did the world population reach 1 billion?

1800; HALF CREDIT FOR 1750 TO 1850

5. Name 1 country in the top 10 with highest rate of natural increase.

NIGER, BURKINA FASO, UGANDA, PALESTINE, TIMOR-LESTE

BENIN, TANZINIA, YEMEN, CHAD, GUINEA

6. What is a sustainable population growth rate?

ZERO

7. About what percentage of the world population lives in urban areas now?

50% ACCEPT 45 TO 55

8. What caused a sharp increase in mortality in 1918 in most countries in the world?

INFLUENZA; SPANISH FLU; FLU

9. What does ICD refer to?

INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF DISEASES

10. What is the most important determinant of “aging” of the population of a developing country – a decline in the birth rate, or a decline in the death rate?

DECLINE IN THE BIRTH RATE

11. Name the most important major underlying or intermediate fertility determinant.

WOMEN’S LEVEL OF SCHOOLING (EDUCATION)

12. Name one of the top 10 countries (places) with highest fertility

NIGER, MALI, SOMALIA, UGANDA, DR. CONGO, ZAMBIA, CHAD, MALAWI, BURKINA FASO, LIBERIA (ACCEPT ZIMBABWE TOO)

13. Name one of the 10 countries (places) with lowest fertility

SLOVAKIA, MOLDOVA, SAN MARINO, ANDORA, BELARUS, BOSNIA/HERZEGOVINA, REP OF KOREA, POLAND, CHINA-HONG KONG; CHINA-MACAO

14. Name one of Malthus’ “positive” checks

FAMINE, WAR, PESTILENCE

15. Name one of the top two countries with the largest global share of deforestation

BRAZIL, INDONESIA

16. From the table below, to what age can a 65-year old woman expect to live?

Age	Expectation of life for females (years)
0	85.6
30	56.2
65	23.3

88.3 YEARS

2 points each

17. Define in words:

a) the crude birth rate

1000*NUMBER OF BIRTHS DIVIDED BY MIDYEAR (TOTAL) POPULATION

b) the crude death rate

1000*NUMBER OF DEATHS DIVIDED BY MIDYEAR (TOTAL) POPULATION

c) the crude rate of natural increase

1000*(NUMBER OF BIRTHS - NUMBER OF DEATHS)/MIDYEAR (TOTAL) POPULATION

d) the age-specific birth rate

1000*NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS TO WOMEN AGE A DIVIDED BY MIDYEAR OF WOMEN AGE A (OR A TO A+5)

e) the age-specific death rate

1000*NUMBER OF DEATHS TO PERSONS AGE A DIVIDED BY MIDYEAR OF PERSONS AGE A (OR A TO A+5)

f) fecundity

A WOMAN’S ABILITY TO CONCEIVE (BINARY, I.E. YES OR NO)

g) immigration rate (or give the formula)

NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS/MIDYEAR POPULATION OF RECEIVING COUNTRY

18. Define, or give the equation for the dependency ratio for a population.

NUMBER OF PERSONS LESS THAN AGE 15 PLUS NUMBER OF PERSONS OVER AGE 64 DIVIDED BY NUMBER OF PERSONS AGE 15-64 IN A POPULATION

ALSO ACCEPTED: POPULATION DEPENENT/WORKING AGE POPULATION

19. Name 2 countries among the top 10 countries that are adding the most persons per year.

India Nigeria

Bangladesh Ethiopia

Congo Brazil

China USA

Pakistan indonesia

20. Name 2 countries of the ten with lowest (negative) natural increase in the years 2000-2010.

UKRAINE, BULGARIA, BELARUS, RUSSIA, LATVIA, LITHUANIA, HUNGARY, ROMANIA, GERMANY, CROATIA

21 Name two of the five largest urban areas in the world in 2010.

TOKYO; SAO PAULO; DELHI; MEXICO CITY; MUMBAI

22. Name two essential characteristics of a census.

UNIVERSALITY, SIMULTANEITY, PERIODICITY , INDIVIDUAL ENUMERATION

23. If we find that the sex ratio at birth in a region of China is 120, what does that imply?

SEX SELECTIVE ABORTION (HALF CREDIT FOR FEMALE INFANTICIDE AND NON REGISTERED); GENDER BIAS, GENDER DISCRIMINATION

24. Name two of the four most important “proximate” fertility determinants/variables.

CONTRACEPTION, ABORTION, LACTATIONAL INFECUNDABILITY, MARRIAGE

25. Why is breastfeeding listed as an intermediate fertility variable?

EXCLUSIVE BREASTFEDING KEEPS A WOMAN ANNOVULATORY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY SO SHE CANNOT BECOME PREGNANT

26. What are the two insights of Malthus?

POPULATION GROWS GEOMETRICALLY/EXPONENTIALLY

FOOD SUPPLY GROWS ARITHMETICALLY

27. What was Malthus’ main conclusion?

UNLESS PREVENTIVE CHECKS ARE PUT IN PLACE, POPULATION WILL OUTSTRIP RESOURCES (ESP. FOOD SUPPLY) AND THERE WILL BE A COLLAPSE, THAT IS MORTALITY WILL RISE

28. Name 2 endangered large primate species.

ORANGUTAN; CHIMPANZEE, GORILLA, BONOBO

29. Complete the sentence “When a species is gone IT IS GONE FOREVER”

HALF CREDIT FOR ‘IT IS GONE’

30. At present, Nigeria’s population is 160 million and it is growing at about 2% per year. If this rate of growth continued without change, how long would it take Nigeria’s population to reach 640 million? (Show calculation).

(35*2) = 70 YEARS (TWO DOUBLINGS OF 35 YEARS EACH)

4 points each

31. The United Nations gives four numbers for projections for each country in 2050. What scenarios do the four numbers correspond to?

LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, CONSTANT

32. A certain population had a census in year t and enumerated 1.655 million persons. Then in year t+10 a subsequent census enumerated 1.859 million persons. Counts of vital registration records for the intercensal period showed 230,000 births and 60,000 deaths. Please estimate migration in the intercensal period. (show calculations)

NET MIGRATION = Pt – Po + D – B = 1,859 – 1,655 + 60 – 230 = 34,000

CALCULATION IN THOUSANDS

33. Briefly describe the four stages of the demographic transition.

HIGH BIRTH RATES AND HIGH DEATH RATES SO CLOSE TO 0 GROWTH RATE

2. HIGH BIRTH RATES DECLINING DEATH RATE SO HIGH GROWTH RATE

DECLINING BIRTH RATE AND DECLINING OR LOW DEATH RATE SO DECLINING GROWTH RATE

4. BOTH BIRTH AND DEATH RATES LOW SO CLOSE TO 0 GROWTH RATE

34. In the table below are birth and midyear female population data for a fictitious country

Calculate the total fertility rate for this country (show calculations)

Age group (years)	Number of women	Number of births	RATIO
15-19	1000	50	0.05
20-24	1500	150	0.10
25-29	1500	300	0.20
30-34	2000	200	0.10
35-39	1500	150	0.10
40-44	1000	50	0.05
45-49	1000	0	0.00

SUM = 0.60 THEN * 5 = TFR =3.00

3 points

On the graph below, sketch the shape of the age specific death rate. Label the age axis.

Miscl points (in parentheses)

39. (2) Name one advantage and one disadvantage of birth and death registration.

Advantage UNIVERSAL; ALLOWS TABULATION OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY AT LOCAL LEVELS; ALLOWS FEEDBACK FOR HEALTH PROGRAMS.

Disadvantage COSTLY, MUST RELY ON MANY PERSONNEL; SUPERVISION OF QUALITY IS DIFFICULT, LITERACY NECESSARY

40. (2) Give one reason why international migrants may have an initial health advantage.

SELECTION EFFECT OF MORE HEALTHY LEAVING THEIR COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

BETTER HEALTH BEHAVIORS (BETTER DIET, EXERCISE, ETC)

41. (2) Why is replacement level fertility (for TFR) about 2.1 births per woman instead of 2.0?

BECAUSE SOME BIRTHS DO NOT SURVIVE TO THE AGE OF REPRODUCTION

42 (3) Will the population stop growing the year that replacement fertility is reached? Why or why not?

NO. BECAUSE OF BUILT-IN MOMENTUM OF THE AGE STRUCTURE EXISTING AT THE TIME

43. Name 1 resource that is being regulated now but 200 years ago was considered in the commons.

AIR, FRESH WATER, OCEANS, FORESTS, LAND

½ CREDIT FOR WASTE, SEWAGE AND SO ON.

44. (3)Why/how does age at marriage affect TFR in a population?

LATER MARRIAGE MEANS LATER START OF FERTILITY (IN MOST POPULATIONS) SO CETERIS PARIBUS TFR WILL BE LOWER IN POPULATIONS WITH LATE MARRIAGE

19 CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY FOOD SECURITY SUPPLEMENT FACSIMILE OF
20042006 POPULATION WEIGHTED EXPOSURE TO ANNUAL PM25 ABOVE THE
21 POPULATION DYNAMICS IN COLONIAL SURINAM 1849 1873

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