ASSESSING THE OCCURRENCE VULNERABILITY AND EXPANSION OF FOREST TREE

ANNOTATION TRANSFER FOR GENOMICS ASSESSING THE TRANSFERABILITY OF PROTEINPROTEIN
06096 DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CHAPTER 315 ASSESSING AND
19 IS PEACE JOURNALISM POSSIBLE? THREE FRAMEWORKS FOR ASSESSING

2 NONASSESSING CHAIR’S SUMMARY REPORT FORM DOCTORAL THESIS TO
2 TOWN OF HOOKSETT ASSESSING DEPARTMENT BOARD OF ASSESSORS
47402 REV3 REFERENCES ASSESSING INTEREST ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS AND PENALTIES

Assessing the occurrence, vulnerability and expansion of forest tree species of the Pacific Northwest in response to recent climate variation

Authors: Nicholas C Coops (University of British Columbia) and Richard H Waring (Oregon State University)

Submitted to ForestSat 2012, Corvallis Oregon

Highlights: (bullet point, no more than 150 words)

We investigated the link between shifts in climate on current and future distributions of tree species
To do so we utilized a novel approach of modeling climate, species, physiological and remotely sensed data.
We assessed the relative constraints that soil drought, atmospheric humidity deficits, suboptimal and subfreezing temperatures imposed on key species within the region
We then defined regions which remained suitable or became vulnerable to disturbance based on the species suitability to a specific site
Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining well adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50%.
Ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges.

Extended Abstract (no more than 1000 words)

In the Pacific Northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase between 1950-1975. We investigated the implications of this shift in climate on current and future species distributions and the impact on the vulnerability of native tree species. To do so, we first mapped monthly climatic data from 1950 – 2005 at 1 km resolution across the region. The recorded presence and absence of fifteen native tree species from field survey plots were then used to establish seasonal limits on photosynthesis and water use using a process-based growth model (3-PG, Physiological Processes to Predict Growth) parameterized for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), one of the most widely distributed species in the region. Automated decision tree analyses were used to predict the distribution of different species by creating a suite of rules associated with the relative constraints that soil drought, atmospheric humidity deficits, suboptimal and subfreezing temperatures would impose on the growth of Douglas-fir.

We applied these species models annually for the period between 1976 and 2005 to define areas remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the original physiologically defined climatic limits. Based on selection criteria, 70% of the 15 native species of conifers analyzed remained suitably adapted within their original ranges, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining well adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50%. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21^st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model.

9 PRINCIPLES OF GOOD PRACTICE FOR ASSESSING STUDENT LEARNING
A DESIGN OF BENCHMARKING METHOD FOR ASSESSING PERFORMANCE OF
a Rubric for Rubrics a Tool for Assessing

Tags: assessing the, vulnerability, expansion, assessing, occurrence, forest