EFFECTS OF COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY MEASURES ON INTRA AND

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Econometric research on price transmission aims at identifying whether and to what extent spatial distant prices influence each other

Effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on intra and inter annual agricultural price formation in a regional context

The Common Agricultural Policy changes producer prices within the European member states. Close trade relations between partner states cause mutual dependency between respective prices. Policies affecting a price may have an impact on prices in integrated markets. Knowing how prices are transmitted between member states is thus essential for taking appropriate political decisions. The PhD project introduced here deals with temporal, spatial and political aspects of price transmission.

In perfect competition circumstances where no spatial, temporal or personal differences exist and information is perfectly available, only one price emerges for homogeneous goods. Weakening the assumption of spatial and temporal indifference causes price differences being equal to transfer costs over space and time. This concept is called the Law of One Price.

For Europe, there are just few studies concerning spatial prices transmission. In sum, they confirm the Law of One Price of European Markets but with strong limitations. They state that in analysing policies such as intervention, the countries investigated as well as product characteristics (heterogeneity) show significant effects on price transmission. However, all of them merely work with price data. As trade is one condition of genuine price transmission, there is a need for investigation of European price transmission by inclusion of trade information. Consequently, this PhD thesis integrates trade data in an econometric consideration of price transmission and tests to what extent it is significant for price relations in Europe. Due to data restrictions, the analysis for now concentrates on German, French, Danish, Belgian, Irish and Dutch prices for pork, skimmed milk powder and probably wheat. The data are available per month from 1995 to 2009.

After a basic model including prices and quantities is developed, political and temporal effects are investigated. An obvious focus here is intervention as it applies to milk and wheat but not to pork. As a last step, temporal effects will be regarded in a more sophisticated statistical analysis. Particularly, the influence of data frequency on estimated relationships is interesting for the project CAPRI RD, which provides the larger context for this thesis. CAPRI uses annual prices and largely neglects policy adjustments that are based on monthly or weekly price behaviour.


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Tags: agricultural policy, common agricultural, policy, effects, common, intra, measures, agricultural